Sunday, December 25, 2022

A Perspective on Perspectives

Last Sunday Perspective of the year, so let’s look at how we put together the perspectives, and why it can be a valuable framework for evaluation and decision-making.

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HOW TO CREATE A PERSPECTIVE

  • Why did we create the Sunday Perspective shows?

CAN YOU USE THE SUNDAY PERSPECTIVE FRAMEWORK FOR WORK DECISIONS?

  • Understand things from different perspectives
  • Understand both the technologies and the economics
  • Understand how people will impact the decisions

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Wednesday, December 21, 2022

2022 Year in Review & 2023 Predictions

Aaron and Brian discuss the 2022 Year in Review, highlighting the biggest trends, as well as making 2023 predictions. 

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THE BASICS:

THE BIG NEWS AREAS:

  • Tech layoffs in 2HCY22
  • VMware got acquired by Broadcom (will be part of CA+others)
  • The US made a big investment in CHIPS
  • NVIDIA’s acquisition of ARM fell through
  • AWS - $60B>$85B (+28%), Azure - $35B>$50B (+42%), GCP - $15B>$27B (+38%)
  • Microsoft is now 50/50 in Software and Cloud revenues
  • AWS re:Invent is different under Adam Selipsky
  • Between Texts and Images, AI seemed to make a big leap 
  • WebAssembly (WASM) is starting to make noise in new ways (PaaS 2.0?)
  • Is Platform Engineering replacing DevOps and SRE?
  • Docker 2.0 is making money

2023 PREDICTIONS: 

Aaron’s Predictions:

  • We’ll see a Twitter clone founded by folks that left
  • Azure will become #1 public cloud (pulled from 2022 predictions)
  • Docker will become a unicorn again and prove everyone wrong
  • 2023 will be the year of the down rounds:
    • Worldwide: 450 unicorn and 24 decacorn
    • A unicorn will go under
  • Apple will  finally give everyone a peek at their EV car in development, just to mess with Elon a bit.

Brian’s Predictions:

  • We’ll start seeing some of the 2020-2022 unicorns acquired as sub-unicorn prices
  • Serverless makes a comebac
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Sunday, December 18, 2022

Technology Booms and Busts

Let’s look at the differences between when technology is in a boom-cycle vs. a bust-cycle, and what happens as things transition between cycles. 

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HOW CAN WE TELL WHAT CYCLE WE’RE IN? 

  • Right now, it feels like we’re in a bust cycle, or at least a correction-cycle, but how do we know what cycle we’re currently in - and more importantly - how do we know when the next cycle will begin?

THE GOOD TIMES, THE UNCERTAIN TIMES, AND THE BAD TIMES

  • History repeats itself, hence why it’s good to study history. 
  • Follow the money. Is money cheap? Is money highly leveraged? What is motivating the money?
  • Does it make sense to a layperson? 
  • Can the technology create a sustainable business model? Does it create an expanding ecosystem, or winner-takes-all?
  • Do the stories highlight the people, or the excesses of the people, or do they highlight value-creation? Stories are bolder in a boom. 
  • Booms will start slow, will gain word of mouth, will sustain for a while, will begin to reach, and then crash hard. People are never quite sure when to jump into a boom. Reactions are faster in a crash. 
  • Crashes happen quickly, as they are usually highly leveraged. 
  • The winners in a crash are the ones with money to buy low, or are capitalized after a crash. 

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Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Bringing The Cloud to IT

Bryan Thompson (VP  Product Management of @HPE_GreenLake Cloud Services) talks about managing private and hybrid cloud services and bringing the Cloud to data.

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Topic 1 - Welcome to the show. Let’s talk about your background, and what you focus on at HPE.

Topic 2 - HPE is one of the most iconic brands in all of computing history. A lot has evolved over the years. Where does Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) fit into the picture with HP, and what is the HPE focus these days?

Topic 3 - For the last 10 years, we’ve seen a huge growth in the usage of public cloud, but we also heard many industry leaders claim that we’re still only around 10% in public cloud. That means we have behavioral expectations changing (on-demand, scalable, etc.) but not necessarily actions changing. How does HPE view their role in the evolution and intersection of IT and the Cloud?  

Topic 4 - Give us an overview of HPE GreenLake, both in terms of technology and delivery/operations. 

Topic 5 - HPE GreenLake has a “bring the Cloud to IT” approach. What does that mean in terms of evolving that 90% that hasn’t moved to the cloud yet? And will they ever move to the cloud?  

Topic 6 - What surprises people the most when they start to understand what’s possible with HPE GreenLake that wasn’t there a few years ago? 

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Sunday, December 11, 2022

State of OpenCloud 2022

Looking at the Battery Ventures “State of OpenCloud 2022” for trends that will impact 2023.

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HOW DO THE VCs LOOK AT THE STATE OF THE OPEN CLOUD MARKET?

  • VCs are still very bullish on cloud-native and open-source cloud companies
  • “Good growth” will be encouraged and rewarded
  • Software “multiples” are back to 2018-19 levels. The 2020s were crazy value  inflation. 

HOW CAN THAT INFLUENCE WHAT 2023 MIGHT LOOK LIKE?

  • Lots of companies are re-evaluating their spending levels and cost levels
  • Lots of highly “valued” private companies may become acquisition targets in 2023
  • Most of the job-cuts, thus far, haven’t been that large, as a percentage. 
  • For software businesses, cloud-services are growing 3-5x their software business. Expect to see more companies moving to those offerings. 
  • Cloud providers continue to show strong growth, even at a larger scale. Expect this to continue, although they are all shifting their focuses. 
  • Software can be a driving force to enable productivity, so expect to see companies continue to focus on software-driven projects. 
  • Lots of good insights into how the selling and buying model are evolving. Interesting if you’re evaluating companies beyond just what they offer. 

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Wednesday, December 7, 2022

2022 AWS re:Invent Announcements

Let’s look at the NEW announcements from AWS re:Invent. Not as many as usual, but some interesting new focus areas for AppDev, AppNet, and Security.

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~130 new announcements (features, services, partner-related capabilities)

< 10 brand new services

 

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Sunday, December 4, 2022

Thoughts from AWS re:Invent

AWS re:Invent is the largest Cloud conference of the year, and it was back after a downturn from the COVID pandemic. What was the vibe in Las Vegas in 2022?

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WHAT WAS THE VIBE FROM AWS IN YEAR 2 OF ADAM SELIPSKY?

  • AWS is the profit center of Amazon
  • 50-60,000 attendees
  • No longer focus on “why cloud is better”
  • Limited focus on how well AWS is doing (Gartner, scale, new releases, etc.)
  • Limited focus on cost savings, and no focus on price reductions
  • Great focus on “solutions” - 99% of the building blocks are in place

WHAT WAS THE VIBE FROM ATTENDEES AND PARTNERS/VENDORS?

  • 2300 breakout sessions (KubeCon has 200+)
  • Less competition with technology partners
  • Lots of cloud cost-management companies
  • Very healthy community support
  • Concern about AWS competing the channel partners - consulting
  • Difficult to get a focus in the show - too many focus areas
  • More focus on data

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